At 15:00 on 6th Oct Beijing time, xrp price today was at $0.50, down 1.8% from 24 hours ago. (Data source:) CoinMarketCap), even though intraday high was at $0.52 (3.1% higher) and intraday low went as low as $0.48 (3.9% lower). Price volatility (standard deviation) increased to 2.4%, higher than the 7-day average of 1.8%. The turnover over 24 hours was 1.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 25% compared to yesterday. Of them, Binance Exchange accounted for 37% (666 million US dollars) and Coinbase Pro accounted for 12% (216 million US dollars). The most significant price fluctuation occurred between 10:30 and 11:00. Driven by the US non-farm payroll data release, xrp price today increased 4.1% to $0.51 from $0.49 in 30 minutes, and then lost half of the gains.
On-chain signals show today’s whales’ transactions (≥ $100,000) totaled 1,230 (up 18% from yesterday), with a total value of $780 million, of which 62% were shifted in by exchanges (selling pressure indicator). Santiment picked up that an unknown address sent 5 million XRP (around 2.5 million US dollars) to Binance at 13:20, and the price fell by 1.2% in 10 minutes. At the same time, the number of “retail addresses” that held between 10,000 and 100,000 XRP grew by 1.2%, and the percentage of holdings reached 23% of the circulating supply, which could act as a buffer against short-term volatility.
Technical markers indicate a game of bulls and bears. The 4-hour RSI of today’s xrp price is 52 (neutral zone), but the MACD histogram speaks below the zero line, as a decaying selling pressure. The primary support line is at $0.48 (50-day moving average), and the resist line is at $0.52 (Bollinger Band Upper trace). TradingView data shows that if the price breaks through $0.51 (today’s volume-weighted average price), it would trigger the liquidation of $82 million worth of short contracts (source: CoinGlass), and if it falls below $0.49, it would trigger a $65 million long position liquidation.
Market sentiment is event-driven. Today, the “XRP” hashtag on the Twitter platform was tweeted 120,000 times (40% more than yesterday), of which 58% was positive sentiment (data tool: LunarCrush). However, the Fear & Greed Index decreased from 48 yesterday to 45 (bearish to neutral) possibly due to the 1.5% decline of Bitcoin over the same period. Bloomberg reported that the hearing of the lawsuit between Ripple and the US SEC is scheduled for November 2nd. Lawyers are predicting that the possibility of the SEC winning the case has been reduced marginally from 45% to 48%, and some investors are booking profits due to this.
At the macro level, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.8% (a high last seen in 2007), suppressing the price of risky assets. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies went down by 1.2% today, although XRP performed a little better than the rest of the market (-1.8% compared to -1.2%). In the derivatives market, the Deribit exchange XRP options’ implied volatility spiked to 65% (yesterday: 55%) as investors wagered on increased price volatility over the next seven days, with a 68% probability of hitting a target of $0.46- $0.54.
In summary, the xrp price today shows a weak and volatile trend, but the key support level has not been breached. If Bitcoin bounces back to $27,500 before the US stock market closure (currently 27,200), XRP can bounce back to $0.51. If it drops below $0.48, be cautious of a rapid decline to $0.45 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). Short-term traders are recommended to trade swing between the levels of $0.49- $0.51, and the stop-loss at $0.47.